An extensive study on evaluating climate change models impacts in prediction of climatology parameters: Case study Kor Basins, Iran

نویسندگان

چکیده

Climate change has led to significant changes in weather elements recent years, which, affect the various aspects of human life, including water supply, food security, and so on. In this research, effects climate on Kor basin Fars province under different scenarios for four parameters minimum maximum temperature, mean temperature precipitation using Beijing Center System Model (BCC-CSM 1.1), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC-CM) Community Earth Contributors CESM-BGC models (Fifth assessment report Intergovernmental Panel Change, IPCC) is investigated. present study, method micrometric factor conversion period 1979 2005 calibration these from 2006 2017 measure accuracy used. following, are used predict upcoming (up 2100). Among models, BCC-CSM 1.1 climatic Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP 2.6, 4.5 6.0 8.5, CMCC-CM CESM1-BGC have two RC P6.0 scenarios. According IPCC's fifth report, each concentrations greenhouse gases predicting future climate. The results show that model with a absolute relative error (MARE) 2.619 best performance rainfall estimation MARE 1.467 evaluation equal 0.287 and, 0.115 showed average temperature. Considering issue its impact all such as can by determining efficiency estimating specific component be useful step planning managing region.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Nucleation and Atmospheric Aerosols

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['0094-243X', '1551-7616', '1935-0465']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0130939